Economic impacts of a possible halt in the supply of energy commodities from Russia to Europe

Martin Motl, Lubos Komarek, Jan Hosek and Soňa Benecká

A chapter in CNB Global Economic Outlook - May 2022, 2022, pp 14-20 from Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department

Abstract: The aim of the analysis is (i) to give a general description of the macroeconomic links in the context of a further pronounced reduction or a complete halt in the flow of natural gas, oil and other commodities from Russia to Europe; (ii) to give a flavour of emerging studies which aim to estimate the potential economic costs of this decision, and (iii) to present our own model scenario of the impacts of a halt in oil, coal and natural gas supplies from Russia on the euro area economy. Overall, a halt in the supply of natural gas in particular would have a stagflationary, or slumpflationary, effect on European economies. To conclude, we summarise the general recommendations for minimising the negative impacts of a possible halt in natural gas supplies from Russia.

Date: 2022
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