 Who will pay the COVID debt?A chapter in CNB Global Economic Outlook - October 2023, 2023, pp 14-18 from Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department Abstract: From the perspective of public finances, the COVID pandemic is reminiscent of a period of war. The sharp and temporary increase in government spending to combat the pandemic was financed in developed countries not from collected taxes, but from debt and money creation. Does this then mean that we will be passing on the "COVID bill" to the coming generations? This article shows that most of the new debt has already been offset by inflation and bond revaluations. COVID expenditure has thus already been partially "paid for" from the investment losses of government bond holders and need not become a burden we are leaving for future taxpayers. However, historical experience shows that the "post-war" years are also of key importance, with high interest and deflation compensating investors for their wartime capital losses. This effect is also apparent in the current high interest rates, yet it is far from targeted deflation. In the long run, it is therefore likely that, like after the Second World War, COVID debt will be reduced by a combination of inflation and growth, while the contribution of surplus budgets (i.e. future taxpayers) will not be large. Date: 2023 Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cnb:ocpubc:geo2023/10 Access Statistics for this chapter More chapters in Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes from Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department Contact information at EDIRC. |
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