Annual assessment of the forecasts included in GEO

Filip Novotny and Petr Polak

A chapter in CNB Global Economic Outlook - July 2023, 2023, pp 15-21 from Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department

Abstract: Every month, Global Economic Outlook (GEO) provides an overview of the latest economic forecasts issued by international institutions, selected central banks and Consensus Economics. The outlooks for last year were strongly affected by the onset of the war in Ukraine and the resulting energy crisis in Europe. The monitored institutions were thus on average optimistic about the outlooks for GDP growth in 2022, expecting higher growth, which, however, failed to materialise. By contrast, higher-than-expected inflation came as a surprise. A long-running period of low interest rates combined with analysts' conservatism were reflected in a substantial underestimation of outlooks for short-term interest rates at the one-year horizon for the euro area and the USA. The exchange rates of the monitored currencies against the dollar saw an increase in volatility last year due not only to uncertainties, but also differing inflation. The oil price was underestimated in the forecasts over the entire assessment period, as nobody expected another energy shock.

Date: 2023
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