Predicting the Future in Science, Economics, and Politics

Edited by Frank Whelon Wayman, Paul R. Williamson, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita and Solomon Polachek

in Books from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: It is a puzzle that while academic research has increased in specialization, the important and complex problems facing humans urgently require a synthesis of understanding. This unique collaboration attempts to address such a problem by bringing together a host of prominent scholars from across the sciences to offer new insights into predicting the future. They demonstrate that long-term trends and short-term incentives need to be understood in order to adopt effective policies, or even to comprehend where we currently stand and the sort of future that awaits us.

Keywords: Economics and Finance; Politics and Public Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C7 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
ISBN: 9781783471867
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Chapters in this book:

Ch 1 Scientific prediction and the human condition , pp 3-20

Frank Whelon Wayman

Ch 2 Organizing diverse contributions to global forecasting , pp 21-38

Paul R. Williamson

Ch 3 Consilience: the role of human nature in the emergence of social artifacts , pp 45-54

Edward O. Wilson

Ch 4 Darwin’s challenges and the future of human society , pp 55-108

Richard D. Alexander

Ch 5 Properly discounting the future: using predictions in an uncertain world , pp 114-125

J. Farmer and John Geanakoplos

Ch 6 Long-term policy problems: definition, origins, and responses , pp 126-143

Detlef F. Sprinz

Ch 7 Explaining and predicting future environmental scarcities and conflicts , pp 144-190

Urs Luterbacher, Dominic Rohner, Ellen Wiegandt and Sébastien di Iorio

Ch 8 Forecasting nuclear weapons proliferation: a hazard model , pp 194-212

Atsushi Tago and J. David Singer

Ch 9 Forecasting political developments with the help of financial markets , pp 213-232

Gerald Schneider

Ch 10 Glimpses of the future , pp 245-260

John Holland

Ch 11 Forecasting the evolution of cultural collisions using annealing-nucleation models , pp 261-298

Myron S. Karasik

Ch 12 Power structure fluctuations in the “longue durée” of the world system: the shadow of the past upon the future , pp 299-310

David Wilkinson

Ch 13 From altruism to the future frequency of war: how consilient explanation differs from prediction , pp 311-351

Frank Whelon Wayman

Ch 14 System change and Richardson processes: application of social field theory , pp 352-395

Paul R. Williamson

Ch 15 Computational dynamic modelling of the global state space , pp 396-424

Paul R. Williamson

Ch 16 Scientific revolutions and the advancement of explanation and prediction , pp 427-458

Frank Whelon Wayman

Ch 17 Innovations in forecasting the future that one can learn from: predicting the future in science, economics, and politics , pp 459-473

Solomon Polachek

Ch 18 Predicting the future to shape the future , pp 474-492

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

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