Looking backwards in order to peer forwards

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Chapter 24 in A History of the Global Economy, 2018, pp 435-458 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: This chapter considers the ability of history to help resolve present problems and anticipate future opportunities and risks. It starts with an approach which anticipates the global future by extrapolating past trends and past behaviour. Human innovativeness makes it possible for humans to successfully improvise solutions to confronting problems. The chapter sets out as possible options, a best-case scenario and a worst-case scenario for the future. At the core of the chapter is an evaluation of the mechanisms which have driven economic movement in the past, in particular noting the change in demographics, with a peaking of global population in the foreseeable future. It reviews the various types of pessimism about future possibilities, from economic stagnation to environmental damage. It concludes by considering the lessons of history and the political problems of gaining the cooperation needed to solve many global difficulties, including climate change.

Keywords: Development Studies; Economics and Finance (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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