Disaggregating house price dynamics

Rose Neng Lai and Robert A. Van Order

Chapter 7 in Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, 2022, pp 165-205 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: The best known housing bubble is probably the one that burst in the US in 2006-2007, eventually causing the Global Financial Crisis. China as the second world largest economy is experiencing a house price upsurge. If this is a bubble, at least it has not burst. This chapter aims to show the importance of disaggregating house price dynamics so that policy-makers can have better information about the sizes of bubbles to enhance corresponding policies. Furthermore, ignoring the importance of disaggregation of housing markets, according to their characteristics, and differences in time period, can cause ineffective policies in some cities while overshooting in others. This chapter discusses how to apply a regime shift model and Pooled Mean Group/Mean Group Estimations to both the US and the Chinese housing market bubbles. It pays particular attention to cities with high and low house price growth, coastal/inland cities, and high and low supply elasticities.

Keywords: Asian Studies; Economics and Finance; Urban and Regional Studies (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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