What predicts corruption?

Emanuele Colonnelli, Jorge Gallego and Mounu Prem

Chapter 16 in A Modern Guide to the Economics of Crime, 2022, pp 345-373 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: The ability to predict corruption is crucial to policy. Using rich micro-data from Brazil, we show that multiple machine learning models display high levels of performance in predicting municipality-level corruption in public spending. We then quantify which individual municipality features and groups of similar characteristics have the highest predictive power. We find that measures of private sector activity, financial development, and human capital are the strongest predictors of corruption, while public sector and political features play a secondary role. Our findings have implications for the design and cost-effectiveness of various anti-corruption policies.

Keywords: Economics and Finance; Law - Academic; Sociology and Social Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Related works:
Working Paper: What Predicts Corruption? (2020)
Working Paper: What predicts corruption? (2019)
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