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The fiscal cost of renegotiations of road public–private partnerships

Francisco Pinheiro Catalão, Carlos Oliveira Cruz and Joaquim Miranda Sarmento

Chapter 13 in The Elgar Companion to Transport Infrastructure Projects, 2026, pp 235-254 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: The use of PPPs as a procurement tool and finance model for the delivery of public infrastructure has grown worldwide. However, this model has shown to be particularly vulnerable to costly renegotiations. The literature has provided abundant evidence on the mechanism of renegotiations and its main determinants. There is a consensus regarding the importance of the exogenous context – institutional, regulatory, economic, legal, and political – in explaining the likelihood of renegotiations. However, there is little evidence regarding the fiscal costs of such renegotiations and their determinants are also still largely unknown. Using data from the Portuguese road sector, this research analyzes the main determinants of the renegotiations, in terms of their fiscal costs. The results show significant differences between the determinants of renegotiations fiscal costs and those of the likelihood of renegotiations. Project determinants appear to play a more important role than the exogenous context.

Keywords: Public Private Partnerships; Renegotiations; Fiscal costs; Road projects (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781800374874
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