Escalation management in gray zone crises: the proxy factor

Jonathan Wilkenfeld, Egle E. Murauskaite, David Quinn, Devin H. Ellis, Allison Astorino-Courtois and Corinne S. DeFrancisci

Chapter 6 in Escalation Management in International Crises, 2023, pp 143-173 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: Chapter 6 addresses the dynamics of how states employ proxies to achieve their strategic goals in the so-called “gray zone” between normal competition and armed conflict. The basic question is whether the use of proxies by the challenger in a crisis decreases the probability that the defender state will respond with violence. We start by examining a broad set of crises where the initial triggering act is either non-violent or violent, to assess whether defenders respond to proxy triggers or triggers by the challengers themselves with a greater propensity for violence (Hypothesis A). We also consider a narrower set of cases, where the triggering act is violent, asking whether the defender is more likely to respond in a tit-for-tat manner to a proxy, or to a state challenger (Hypothesis B). We find that proxy use is associated with a higher probability of defender violence, regardless of whether the initial crisis trigger was itself violent. In addition, when the trigger is violent, defenders are more likely to respond in a tit-for-tat manner when a proxy does the triggering. Proxy usage actually leads to violent escalation, potentially questioning the assumption that challengers may minimize damage through the use of proxies.

Keywords: Geography; Politics and Public Policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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