Covid-19 death rates: comparing soft- and hard-policy countries and why soft, non-lockdown policy worked best

Morris Altman, Hannah Altman and Louise Lamontagne

Chapter 3 in How to Manage Covid-19 and Other Pandemics, 2026, pp 27-59 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: This chapter presents a comparative analysis of Covid-19 death rates across countries with differing policy approaches. Using per-million death rate estimates, it reveals that nations employing softer, more targeted policies often experienced equal or lower mortality rates than those enforcing extreme lockdowns. Even Sweden, which adopted a more libertarian approach, outperformed some strict-lockdown nations. The chapter also highlights how historical flu death rates correlated with Covid-19 outcomes, demonstrating that robust public health systems and nuanced responses were more effective than heavy-handed lockdowns. This analysis debunks the notion that strict measures were necessary to prevent mass casualties. Instead, it argues that governments should have prioritized targeted interventions—such as mask-wearing and protecting vulnerable populations—rather than relying on economically and socially damaging lockdowns. These findings reinforce the book's broader thesis that extreme policies were neither necessary nor optimal.

Keywords: General Pandemic Comparisons; Soft Vs Hard Lockdowns; Death Rate Analysis; Global Covid Data; Policy Effectiveness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781802204421
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