Did the Great Recession happen?

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Chapter 4 in On the Inaccuracies of Economic Observations, 2024, pp 101-126 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: This chapter studies Gross Planetary Product (GPP, ‘world GDP’) reported by renowned data producers, the International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook (WEO) and the Penn World Table (PWT), produced by a consortium of the universities of California and Groningen. The chapter analyses thirty-five WEO and three PWT vintages and considers implicit minimal measurement errors based on both year-on-year changes and long-run growth rates (over several decades). Both internal (vintages, expenditure-output estimates) and external assessments (comparison between WEO and PWT) reveal important inaccuracy for the growth rate of GPP in a specification that could a priori be expected to avoid many types of measurement error. GPP vintages do not show convergence and numbers still change decades after the year of observation. Also, the dating of turning points of the business cycle may differ by one or two years depending on the source and measure that is used to identify peaks and troughs. The lack of internal and external agreement on the size and even the sign of the change in GPP in the Great Recession year 2009 is remarkable.

Keywords: Economics and Finance; Research Methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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