Outlook-at-risk

Nina Boyarchenko

Chapter 11 in Research Handbook of Macroprudential Policy, 2026, pp 242-260 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: This chapter surveys the outlook-at-risk (OaR) literature, which models the full conditional distribution of future real economic outcomes as a function of prevailing financial and macroeconomic conditions. Emphasis is placed on quantile regression-based estimation strategies that capture non-linear macro-financial amplification mechanisms, consistent with theoretical models of endogenous risk. The chapter synthesizes US and cross-country evidence on the term structure of growth-at-risk, identifies global risk transmission channels via credit and asset pricing factors, and discusses methodological innovations in semi- and non-parametric inference. Open questions include causal identification, policy transmission through financial tails, and integration with structural macroeconomic models.

Keywords: Outlook-at-risk; Downside risk; Financial conditions; Macro-financial linkages; Quantil regression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781035306206
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