Modeling technological change

Zana Cranmer and Erin Baker

Chapter 6 in Handbook of Energy Innovation, 2026, pp 86-102 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: Modeling technological change provides insights into the evolution of energy technology costs in both a stand-alone fashion and in combination with other models such as integrated assessment models for energy and climate policy analysis. This chapter reviews methods such as performance curves, expert elicitation, and mechanistic models for representing the relationship between technology parameters, such as cost or efficiency, and deployment, time, or research funding. We go on to discuss how these models of technological change have been applied to policy questions such as optimal stringency of climate policies and research and development funding portfolios. Addressing uncertainty is crucial in accurately representing the potential future evolution of technologies, ranging from simple sensitivity analysis on individual parameters to multi-stage decision-making under uncertainty frameworks.

Keywords: Performance Curves; Learning Curves; Expert Elicitation; Decision-making; Uncertainty; Technological Change (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781035310401
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