Eliciting beliefs

Guy Ishai

Chapter 4 in Handbook of Experimental Methods in the Social Sciences, 2026, pp 163-211 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: Belief elicitation is important for economic inference, but choosing which elicitation method to use in an experiment involves non-trivial tradeoffs. This chapter systematically compares a select subset of elicitation methods according to their key properties. It discusses theoretical concepts and assumptions underlying the methods, includes methods not addressed in previous reviews, and offers recommendations for applications. The analysis suggests a specific tradeoff. Some methods are advantageous on two important dimensions for reliable elicitation of beliefs: they require weaker theoretical assumptions regarding participants’ capabilities and preferences, and they are simpler for participants. However, these methods are less generally applicable, i.e., they are feasible under limited kinds of uncertainty or only elicit specific aspects of the subjective probability distribution. With the caveat that empirical evidence on their performance is still scarce—researchers could benefit from using these methods by adjusting their experimental design and the belief aspects being elicited.

Keywords: Belief Elicitation; Experimental Design; Subjective Beliefs; Uncertainty (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781035312627
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