Evaluating the success of government intervention during market shocks in a metropolitan city in China: an empirical analysis using data from the 2022 Shanghai COVID-19 pandemic lockdown

Ryan Yu, Konstantinos Nikolopoulos and Vasileios Bougioukos

Chapter 1 in Forecasting, Planning and Strategy in a Turbulent Era, 2025, pp 7-57 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: This comprehensive study investigates the intricate dynamics of the Shanghai COVID-19 pandemic lockdown and its profound impacts on both public health and the economy. The chapter begins with an introduction that outlines the context and importance of examining the Shanghai COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. It highlights the interplay between public health measures, government interventions, and economic indicators as central themes in the research. There is an introduction to the COVID-19 pandemic, its origins, and the global response. It establishes the foundation for understanding the unique challenges posed by the pandemic, with a specific focus on its impact on Shanghai. The chapter also introduces key economic indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and discusses their relevance. Relevant literature on how forecast methods have been utilized is also presented. The research methodology outlines the steps taken to analyze the pandemic's effects. It explains the use of forecasting models, statistical analyses, and machine learning techniques to study COVID-19 trajectories, stock market behavior, and CPI variations. The integration of these methodologies sets the stage for a comprehensive investigation. The subsequent section explores stock market forecasting, highlighting the sensitivity of markets to government interventions utilizing both ARIMA and Compartmental SAIR models to project the pandemic's trajectory. The chapter concludes with a statistical analysis of the CPI and its implications, shedding light on the impact of the pandemic on different sectors. Key takeaways emphasize the critical role of government interventions in pandemic management and their implications for the economy and public health.

Keywords: Forecasting; Economic shocks; Recovery; Planning (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
ISBN: 9781035317233
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