Forecasting inflation in the private sector: a practitioner viewpoint

Alan Detmeister, Laura Rosner-Warburton, Omair Sharif and Jess Eagel

Chapter 22 in Research Handbook on Inflation, 2025, pp 497-505 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: This chapter explores the methodologies and practices of inflation forecasting in the private sector, focusing on the roles of the “buy side” and “sell side” within financial markets. The authors emphasize that private sector forecasting is predominantly aimed at providing actionable insights for financial market participants, with a significant focus on short-term forecasts. The chapter highlights how the resources dedicated to inflation forecasting vary with market conditions and the relevance of inflation-linked trading. It discusses the practical and eclectic nature of private sector forecasting, driven by the need for timely updates and the use of various data sources, including expensive and high-frequency datasets. The chapter also examines the importance of understanding data construction and methodologies, as well as the need for rapid model adjustments in response to new information. The authors conclude by noting the differences in emphasis between private sector and academic forecasting, particularly regarding the shorter forecasting horizons and the practical orientation of the former.

Keywords: Private sector forecasting; Financial markets; Sell side and buy side; Short-term forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2025
ISBN: 9781035327751
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