Foresight insights from hindsight using retrospective roadmapping

Killian Manyuchi and Robert Phaal

Chapter 12 in Handbook of Technological Forecasting and Roadmapping, 2026, pp 283-304 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: The need for foresight in strategy and policy is increasingly important in the twenty-first century, given the transformative system-level environmental, social, and economic challenges humanity faces. Effective planning for the future requires an understanding of the past, as certain innovation system patterns are likely to repeat themselves in the future, we can learn from our successes and mistakes, and strategic options are often constrained by path dependency and legacy factors. However, both the future and the past are obscured by a ‘fog’ of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity. Foresight becomes more challenging with longer timeframes, typical in sectors such as infrastructure, aerospace, materials, and mining. A temporally coherent approach for strategy and foresight is proposed to address these challenges, combining three established approaches into one process: 1) Retrospective roadmapping, to learn from past relevant experience, and establish the current strategic position and its antecedents; 2) Visioning, to establish a desirable future state, clarify strategic direction and scale of ambition; and 3) Prospective roadmapping, to map pathways from the current position towards the vision, to define goals and targets, and agree on actions and investments to navigate forward. A foresight and strategic planning methodology is proposed to help executives make capital investment decisions and confront and adapt to VUCA circumstances. The approach is illustrated with reference to the mining sector, which is characterised by high levels of capital investment and long planning horizons.

Keywords: Foresight; Strategic Planning; Innovation; Roadmapping (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781035330843
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