The foundation of the general theory of scientific variability for technological evolution: technological forecasting and managerial implications

Mario Coccia

Chapter 1 in Handbook of Technological Forecasting and Roadmapping, 2026, pp 13-32 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: Variability is the predisposition of the elements in a system to assume different values over time and space. In biological systems, variability is basic to explaining differences and evolution in organisms over time and space, but in the study of science and technology, the effects of variation on evolutionary pathways are unknown. In a broad analogy with principles of biological systems, variability can be central to understanding, explaining, and predicting technological evolution. The theory of scientific variability proposed here endeavours to clarify some sources to predict the dynamics and behaviour of different trajectories in processes of technological evolution. Main research fields of quantum technologies are analysed to verify basic predictions of the suggested theory. Empirical evidence reveals that variability in research topics of scientific fields is inversely proportional to their scientific age. Results also suggest that high variability in scientific fields seems to support a high rate of technological evolution. General laws of the proposed theory of scientific variability for technological evolution are: First, scientific variability drives technological evolution: a higher variability in research fields can support a high rate of scientific and technological growth. Second, there is a negative association between scientific age of research fields and variability in their scientific topics that can be represented with an inverse model. Third, the variability between scientific fields can be due to their specific nature, generating a diversification of technological trajectories and their evolutionary pathways. The proposed theory of scientific variability can explain properties underlying the scientific structure driving the evolution of different technological trajectories to design best practices that improve innovation management and technological forecasting for the competitive advantage of firms and nations.

Keywords: Scientific Variability; Scientific Development; Technological Evolution; Technological Change; Technological Trajectories; Entropy; Quantum Technology; Quantum Science (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781035330843
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