Technology foresight toolbox: example from a global automotive supplier

Volker Grienitz

Chapter 5 in Handbook of Technological Forecasting and Roadmapping, 2026, pp 90-108 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: Foresight activities are essential in strategic management, enabling companies to systematically explore possible futures and trends to support long-term decisions. Technology-oriented foresight, in particular, helps anticipate developments, manage risks, stimulate creativity, and strengthen competitiveness (Kim & Mauborgne, 2004). This paper presents the work of an innovation department of a major automotive supplier, where mobility trends strongly influence corporate strategy (Spickermann et al., 2014). The article highlights effective foresight methods and communication tools for engaging stakeholders. Balancing market pulls and technology push is critical. Engineers may overlook customer needs (Schwarz, 2023), while business-oriented perspectives risk neglecting internal competencies. Therefore, market analysis integrates future scenarios, success factors, and trends using methods such as scenario planning, trend analysis, and STEEP analysis (Webb, 2024). Technology developments are systematically assessed, with open innovation playing a key role. Results are structured in technology scorecards (Grienitz, 2005), Gartner's hype cycle, and roadmaps, with technological maturity evaluated through Mantkin's 9-stage TRL approach. This dual focus on market demand and technological capabilities helps identify potential applications and future research needs. Clear and accessible communication is central to foresight success. Large international companies employ reports and dedicated communication channels to ensure stakeholder engagement. Organisational design questions are also addressed, emphasising how teams can be structured for effective foresight work. Overall, this article provides a practical field report, demonstrating how technology-oriented foresight can be systematically implemented, organised, and communicated to support innovation and long-term competitiveness.

Keywords: Market Pull; Technology Push; Deep Dive; Technology Readiness (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781035330843
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