Belief elicitation and learning

Charles A. Holt

Chapter 5 in The Origins and Evolution of Experimental Economics, 2026, pp 69-83 from Edward Elgar Publishing

Abstract: This chapter surveys methods of measuring subjective beliefs, which are key elements in any decision process. The workhorse Quadratic Scoring Rule imposes penalties that are based on the extent to which beliefs are inconsistent with the subsequent realization of a random event. The problem is that a risk-averse person can remove the risk by reporting uninformative equal probabilities for each outcome in a manner that equalizes the penalties. It's time to move beyond band-aid fixes (debiasing and binarization) for the Quadratic Scoring Rule and use a choice-menu approach that captures the Becker, DeGroot, and Marschak insight in an easily understood choice menu procedure.

Keywords: Belief Elicitation; Quadratic Scoring Rule; Lottery Choice Belief Menu; Binarized Scoring Rule (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026
ISBN: 9781035356256
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