On the Evolution of US Temperature Dynamics

Francis Diebold and Glenn Rudebusch

A chapter in Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling, 2022, vol. 43A, pp 9-28 from Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Abstract: Climate change is a massive multidimensional shift. Temperature shifts, in particular, have important implications for urbanization, agriculture, health, productivity, and poverty, among other things. While much research has documented rising mean temperaturelevels, the authors also examine range-based measures of daily temperaturevolatility. Specifically, using data for select US cities over the past half-century, the authors compare the evolving time series dynamics of the average daily temperature (AVG) and the diurnal temperature range (DTR; the difference between the daily maximum and minimum temperatures). The authors characterize trend and seasonality in these two series using linear models with time-varying coefficients. These straightforward yet flexible approximations provide evidence of evolving DTR seasonality and stable AVG seasonality.

Keywords: Diurnal temperature range; temperature volatility; temperature variability; climate modeling; climate change; temperature seasonality; Q54; C22 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
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Related works:
Working Paper: On the Evolution of U.S. Temperature Dynamics (2021)
Working Paper: On the Evolution of U.S. Temperature Dynamics (2019)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-90532021000043a002

DOI: 10.1108/S0731-90532021000043A002

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