Markov Switching Rationality

Florens Odendahl, Barbara Rossi and Tatevik Sekhposyan

A chapter in Essays in Honor of Joon Y. Park: Econometric Methodology in Empirical Applications, 2023, vol. 45B, pp 35-64 from Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Abstract: The authors propose novel tests for the detection of Markov switching deviations from forecast rationality. Existing forecast rationality tests either focus on constant deviations from forecast rationality over the full sample or are constructed to detect smooth deviations based on non-parametric techniques. In contrast, the proposed tests are parametric and have an advantage in detecting abrupt departures from unbiasedness and efficiency, which the authors demonstrate with Monte Carlo simulations. Using the proposed tests, the authors investigate whether Blue Chip Financial Forecasts (BCFF) for the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) are unbiased. The tests find evidence of a state-dependent bias: forecasters tend to systematically overpredict interest rates during periods of monetary easing, while the forecasts are unbiased otherwise. The authors show that a similar state-dependent bias is also present in market-based forecasts of interest rates, but not in the forecasts of real GDP growth and GDP deflator-based inflation. The results emphasize the special role played by monetary policy in shaping interest rate expectations above and beyond macroeconomic fundamentals.

Keywords: Forecasting; forecast rationality; regression-based tests of forecasting ability; Markov-switching models; survey forecasts; interest rate forecasts (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (text/html)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... 1-90532023000045B002
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.110 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:aecozz:s0731-90532023000045b002

DOI: 10.1108/S0731-90532023000045B002

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Advances in Econometrics from Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Emerald Support ().