A Study on the Impact of COVID-19 on the Stock Market in BRIC Countries

M Anand Shankar Raja, Keerthana Shekar, B Harshith and Purvi Rastogi

A chapter in Digital Transformation, Strategic Resilience, Cyber Security and Risk Management, 2023, vol. 111C, pp 1-26 from Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic has recently had an impact on the stock market all over the globe. A thorough review of the literature that included the most cited articles and articles from well-known databases revealed that earlier research in the field had not specifically addressed how the BRIC stock markets responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. The data regarding COVID-19 were collected from the World Health Organization (WHO) website, and the stock market data were collected from Yahoo Finance and the respective country’s stock exchange. A random forest regression algorithm takes the closing price of respective stock indices as target variables and COVID-19 variables as input variables. Using this algorithm, a model is fit to the data and is visualised using line plots. This study’s findings highlight a relationship between the COVID-19 variables and stock market indices. In addition, the stock market of BRIC countries showed a high correlation, especially with the Shanghai Composite Stock Index with a correlation value of 0.7 and above. Brazil took the worst hit in the studied duration by declining approximately 45.99%, followed by India by 37.76%. Finally, the data set’s model fit, which employed the random forest machine learning method, producedR2values of 0.972, 0.005, 0.997, and 0.983 and mean percentage errors of 1.4, 0.8, 0.9, and 0.8 for Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC), respectively. Even now, two years after the coronavirus pandemic started, the Brazilian stock index has not yet returned to its pre-pandemic level.

Keywords: COVID-19; BRIC; stock market indices; cumulative cases; cumulative deaths; random forest regression; correlation; decision tree; G10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:csefzz:s1569-37592023000111c001

DOI: 10.1108/S1569-37592023000111C001

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