Chapter 1 Forecasting Annual UK Inflation Using an Econometric Model over 1875–1991

Michael Clements and David Hendry

A chapter in Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty, 2008, pp 3-39 from Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Abstract: In recent work, we have developed a theory of economic forecasting for empirical econometric models when there are structural breaks. This research shows that well-specified models may forecast poorly, whereas it is possible to design forecasting devices more immune to the effects of breaks. In this chapter, we summarise key aspects of that theory, describe the models and data, then provide an empirical illustration of some of these developments when the goal is to generate sequences of inflation forecasts over a long historical period, starting with the model of annual inflation in the UK over 1875–1991 in Hendry (2001a).

Date: 2008
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.101 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (text/html)
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.101 ... 1574-8715(07)00201-1
https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.101 ... d&utm_campaign=repec (application/pdf)
Access to full text is restricted to subscribers

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:fegzzz:s1574-8715(07)00201-1

DOI: 10.1016/S1574-8715(07)00201-1

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Frontiers of Economics and Globalization from Emerald Group Publishing Limited
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Emerald Support ().