The Information Value of Excessive Speculative Trades on Price Volatility in Oil Futures Markets

Leo H. Chan, Chi M. Nguyen and Kam C. Chan

A chapter in International Financial Markets, 2014, vol. 13, pp 1-24 from Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Abstract: In this chapter, we apply the new measure of speculative activities (hereafter, named the speculative ratio) in Chan, Nguyen, and Chan (2013) to study the relationship between those activities and volatility in the oil futures market. We document that the speculative ratio (trading volume divided by open interest) can isolate speculative elements from total trading activities. Using the oil futures data and dividing the data into two subperiods surrounding Hurricane Katrina, we find an increased speculative trades in the post-Hurricane Katrina period. Our results show that speculative activities create a more volatile oil futures market and they lower the information flow between volatility and speculative activities in the post-Hurricane Katrina period.

Keywords: Speculative activities; volatility; oil futures markets (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:fegzzz:s1574-8715(2013)0000013006

DOI: 10.1108/S1574-8715(2013)0000013006

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