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Inflation Expectations in the U.S. in Fall 1933

Andrew J. Jalil and Gisela Rua

A chapter in Research in Economic History, 2017, vol. 33, pp 139-169 from Emerald Group Publishing Limited

Abstract: We document how inflation expectations evolved in the United States during the fall of 1933 using narrative evidence from historical news accounts and the forecasts of contemporary business analysts. We find that inflation expectations, after rising substantially during the spring of 1933, moderated in the fall in response to mixed messages from the Roosevelt Administration. The narrative accounts and our econometric model connect the dramatic swings in output growth in 1933 – the rapid recovery in the spring and the setback in the fall – to these sudden movements in inflation expectations.

Keywords: Inflation expectations; Great Depression; narrative evidence; regime change; E31; E32; E12; N42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2017
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eme:rehizz:s0363-326820170000033005

DOI: 10.1108/S0363-326820170000033005

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