Assessing the Economic Effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership on ASEAN Member States

Ken Itakura

Chapter 1 in East Asian Integration (First Edition), pp 1-24 from Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)

Abstract: By applying a recursively dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade, supplemented with the recent database, we conducted a set of policy simulations of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), focusing on Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states (AMSs). Simulation results revealed that all of the member countries gain in terms of real gross domestic product (GDP) from participating in the RCEP by liberalising their trade and fostering investment. Once the investment commitment by the member countries leads to lowering country-specific risk, the gain in real GDP is bolstered further. Investment in all member countries rises as the RCEP is implemented and as more capital from abroad is attracted. Trade volumes expand as the participating countries commit to deeper tariff reductions. Economic welfare also improves for most RCEP member countries.

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