Scenarios for agricultural trade in a changing world

Valeria Pineiro, Juan Pablo Gianatiempo, Joseph W. Glauber, Jorge Rueda and David Laborde Debucquet

Chapter 1 in Agricultural trade at a crossroads with Latin American, Caribbean, and African perspectives for post-MC14, 2026-06-30, pp p. 63-83 from International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Abstract: Over the past 45 years, world merchandise trade has undergone significant structural transformations, and agrifood products have been part of that evolution. After a period of stagnation in the early 1980s, global trade expanded steadily from the mid-1980s through the early 2000s, driven by trade liberalization, technological progress, and deeper economic integration. This expansion accelerated between 2005 and 2010 with the consolidation of global value chains. Between 2010 and 2020, trade growth slowed amid weaker demand and rising tensions. Following the COVID-19 shock, trade rebounded sharply, reaching a historical peak in 2022, largely driven by price increases in the context of the war in Ukraine and general inflationary trends due to the economic recovery following the pandemic. These price surges proved relatively short-lived, however, and commodity prices have generally declined since mid-2022 as supply conditions improved and markets adjusted.

Keywords: agricultural trade; impact; production factors; welfare; agricultural products; policies; Africa; Latin America and the Caribbean (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2026-06-30
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