THE ECONOMIC SITUATION IN POLAND THROUGH THE PRISM OF THE SITUATION IN THE ENTERPRISES ON THE BASIS OF THE BUSINESS TENDENCY SURVEY

Micha³ Bernardelli ()
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Micha³ Bernardelli: Collegium of Economic Analyses, Warsaw School of Economics, Poland

Chapter 10 in ENTERPRISES IN UNSTABLE ECONOMY, 2015, pp 109-136 from Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdansk University of Technology

Abstract: In this paper the procedure of an analysis of the result of the questions of business tendency surveys in industry conducted monthly by the Research Institute for Economic Development in Warsaw School of Economics is described. The procedure is based on hidden Markov models with conditional normal distributions and uses algorithms such as Baum-Welch algorithm, Viterbi algorithm and Monte Carlo simulations. There were considered models with two-state, three-state and four-state Markov chains. The aim of the study was to analyze the relationship between the opinions of the respondents about the current and the future economic situation in the enterprise against the official indications of the economic situation in Poland. As a reference time series the OECD dating of the turning points for Poland was used. For the more accurate analysis the results of the survey were also confronted with hard economic data in form of the sold production in industry (in constant prices). Knowing the accuracy of respondents’ opinion and official nowcasting and forecasting calculations, from the researchers’ and decision-makers’ point of view it could allowed to build the companies’ profile and from the companies’ point of view to make the more reasonable plans related with the production.

Keywords: economic situation; business tendency survey; company strategy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H32 L11 M51 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
ISBN: 978-83-62197-53-8
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