Using Gray-Markov Model and Time Series Model to Predict Foreign Direct Investment Trend for Supporting China's Economic Development

Yanyan Zheng, Tong Shu, Shou Chen and Kin Keung Lai

A chapter in Time Series Analysis - Data, Methods, and Applications from IntechOpen

Abstract: Foreign direct investment (FDI) is one of the important factors affecting China's economic development, the prediction of which is the basis of its development and decision-making. Based on elaborating the significant role in China's economic growth and the status quo of utilizing foreign investment over the period between 2000 and 2016, this chapter attempts to construct Gray-Markov model (GMM) and time series model (TSM) to forecast the trend of China's utilization of FDI and then compares the precision of two different prediction models to obtain a better one. Results indicate that although it is qualified, traditional Gray model needs to be optimized; GMM is built to help modify the result, improve Gray-related degrees, and narrow the gap with real value. Comparing the accuracy of GMM with that of TSM, we can conclude that the fitting effect of GMM is better. To increase the credibility of these results, this chapter is based on the data of Beijing and Chongqing from 1990 till 2016, also verifying that the fitting effect of GMM is superior to that of the TSM. Then, we can safely draw a conclusion that the prediction model of GMM is more credible, which has a certain referencing value for the utilization of FDI.

Keywords: foreign direct investment (FDI); Gray-Markov model (GMM); time series model (TSM) (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C60 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ito:pchaps:165443

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.83801

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