Impact of Oil Price Fluctuation on the Economy of Nigeria, the Core Analysis for Energy Producing Countries

Gylych Jelilov, Abdullahi Ahmad Jibrin, Bilal Celik and Abdurrahman Isik

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Abstract: The study aims to find the short-run empirical analyses of the impact of oil price fluctuation on the monetary instrument (Exchange rate, Inflation, Interest rate) in Nigeria. We explored the frequently used Toda-Yamamoto model (TY) model, by adopting the TY Modified Wald (MWALD) test approach to causality, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs).The study covered the period 1995 to 2018 (monthly basis), and our findings from MWALD test indicated that there is a uni-directional causality of the log of oil price (lnoilpr) to log of the exchange rate (lnexchr) at 10% level of significance, also there is a contemporaneous response of log of consumer price index (lncpi) to log of exchange rate (lnexchr) and log of interest rate (lnintr), and jointly (lnoilpr, lncpi and lnintr) granger cause lncpi. Also at 5% level of significance lnintr responded due to positive change in lnoilpr and lnexchr, and jointly causes lnintr at 5% level of significance. This is complimented with our findings in FEVDs, and IRFs. The empirical analyses shows that oil price is a strong determining factor of exchange rate, cost of borrowing and directly influences inflationary or deflationary tendencies in Nigeria.

Keywords: oil Price; exchange rate; inflation; interest rate; Toda-Yamamoto (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ito:pchaps:219285

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.94055

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