Probabilistic Predictive Modelling for Complex System Risk Assessments

Andrey Kostogryzov, Nikolay Makhutov, Andrey Nistratov and Georgy Reznikov

A chapter in Time Series Analysis - New Insights from IntechOpen

Abstract: The risks assessment is described by the action of estimating the probability distribution functions of possible successes or failures of a system during a given prediction period. Typical probabilistic predictive models and methods for solving risks prediction problems are described, and their classification is given. Priority development directions for risks prediction in standard system processes and their implementation procedures are proposed. The reported examples demonstrate the effects and interpretation of the predictive results obtained. Notes: 1. System is a combination of interacting elements organized to achieve one or more stated purposes (according to ISO/IEC/IEEE 15288 "Systems and software engineering--System life cycle processes"). 2. Risk is defined as the effect of uncertainty on objectives considering consequences. An effect is a deviation from the expected -- positive and/or negative (according to ISO Guide 73).

Keywords: prediction; method; model; probability; risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.intechopen.com/chapters/83570 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ito:pchaps:256444

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.106869

Access Statistics for this chapter

More chapters in Chapters from IntechOpen
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Slobodan Momcilovic ().