Combining Predicted Seabird Movements and Oil Drift Using Lagrangian Agent-Based Model Solutions

Mads Nistrup Madsen, Michael Potthoff and Henrik Skov

A chapter in Marine Pollution - Recent Developments from IntechOpen

Abstract: In traditional oil spill risk assessments, the mortality of seabirds is typically assessed based on a simulated amount of oil combined with a statistical and static (seasonal mean) number of birds within a given grid cell. The size of the cell is typically in the order of 10 by 10 km. Cell averaging in a coarse Eulerian grid will inevitably introduce a high degree of uncertainty with respect to real impact, and due to the patchiness in seabird distribution may result in over-estimation of impacts outside high-density areas and underestimation within high-density patches. Lagrangian agent-based modelling of species movements and oil drift directly would provide consistent results independent of the grid resolution and, at the same time, provide a fine-scale resolution of potential impacts. The robustness of this approach is demonstrated for a potential oil spill in the Barents Sea in an area with a high density of Common Guillemot, followed by a discussion on how this approach can improve future risk assessments during oil spills.

Keywords: oil spill risk assessments; common guillemot; Barents Sea; agent-based modelling; Langrangian modelling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ito:pchaps:275896

DOI: 10.5772/intechopen.106956

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