Pensions and Children

Seppo Honkapohja and Frank Westermann
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Frank Westermann: EEAG

Chapter 12 in Designing the European Model, 2009, pp 399-446 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract The crisis of the pensions system in Europe is primarily a demographic crisis, resulting from falling fertility and increasing longevity. Fertility rates fell from 2.1 children per female in the 1970s to 1.7 children per female in the 1990s, and they are not expected to pick up again in the future. The problem is compounded by increasing longevity. The ratio of people above 65 to people between 15 and 65 (one way to measure the so-called dependency ratio) in most European countries is expected to more than double, on average, in the EU countries between now and 2050. In percentage terms, such a ratio is expected to rise by at least 60 per cent in the case of the UK, up to 125 per cent in the case of Italy. In 2050 the dependency ratio is projected to be around 70 per cent in Italy and Spain; between 45 and 50 per cent in Germany and France; and just below 40 per cent in the UK. Changes in the dependency ratio are expected to be even more dramatic for the newly acceded countries — currently featuring relatively young populations, but expected to follow the same demographic pattern as the rest of Europe at a very fast pace.

Keywords: Dependency; Ratio (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-23665-3_13

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DOI: 10.1057/9780230236653_13

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