Rough Analysis of Uncertainty

Knut Samset

Chapter 20 in Early Project Appraisal, 2010, pp 200-208 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract Uncertainty must be identified before it can be quantified and analyzed. Though there are many methods for analyzing risk, there are few methods for systematic identification of uncertainty (Williams 1995). This is yet another neglected sector in practical project work (Samset 1998). In that respect, the principal aids probably are case studies or scenario techniques. The logical framework method is a type of simple scenario technique that is used to describe and evaluate various strategies. In it, goals in strategies may be varied, and uncertainty components may be associated with specific goals to help develop a picture of project practicality and of how uncertainty may affect realization.

Keywords: Real Risk; Uncertainty Component; Freight Transport; Risk Element; Fatal Risk (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-28992-5_20

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DOI: 10.1057/9780230289925_20

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