The future

Louis Brennan and Alessandra Vecchi
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Louis Brennan: Trinity College
Alessandra Vecchi: Trinity College

Chapter 4 in The business of space, 2011, pp 125-161 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract To explore the future, analysts can choose among various techniques, depending on the nature of the exercise involved. Forecasting is perhaps the most prevalent technique. It employs forecasting models that provide a simplified description of reality and of the relations that are believed to exist between independent or exogenous variables (the values of which are determined outside the model) and dependent or endogenous variables (the values of which are generated by the model). Forecasting models are useful for short-term projections, but they are of little value for exploring the long-term future. This is because such models implicitly assume that the underlying structure of the model (more specifically the relation between the dependent and independent variables) does not vary over the forecasting period.

Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment; International Space Station; Airline Industry; Aviation Industry; Space Industry (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2011
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-30592-2_4

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DOI: 10.1057/9780230305922_4

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