 Business Cycle AnalysisNicolas Carnot, Vincent Koen () and Bruno Tissot Chapter 2 in Economic Forecasting and Policy, 2011, pp 24-65 from Palgrave Macmillan Abstract: Abstract The first step in economic forecasting is to establish the actual position of the economy. This is a prerequisite for a proper forecast of where it is heading (section 2.1). The starting point is therefore the collection of a great variety of economic information with a view to assessing the state of the economy before national accounts data become available, weeks or months later (section 2.2). Survey data can provide precious insights, almost in ‘real time’, and usefully complement the ‘hard data’ due to be released later (section 2.3). Once a range of reasonably comprehensive information has been gathered, the challenge is to make sense of it, by adjusting the raw data in various ways and combining some of them to build summary indicators (section 2.4). In this context, bridge models are especially useful for near-term forecasting purposes (section 2.5). Even so, macroeconomic monitoring involves difficult trade-offs between abundant but often seemingly inconsistent bits of information (section 2.6). Keywords: Euro Area; Reference Series; Bridge Model; Economic Forecast; Term Spread (search for similar items in EconPapers) There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-30644-8_3 Ordering information: This item can be ordered from Access Statistics for this chapter More chapters in Palgrave Macmillan Books from Palgrave Macmillan |
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