Where We Stand at the Beginning of 2010

John Malcolm Dowling and Pradumna Bickram Rana

Chapter 7 in Asia and the Global Economic Crisis, 2010, pp 101-125 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract The OECD compiles a composite series of leading indicators (CLI) for each of its member countries and also for some other developing countries. This series includes a number of different components and has served as a useful indicator of changes in aggregate economic activity in OECD countries and elsewhere. It is possible to get a snapshot of a significant component of the global economy by examining this index. We did this in mid-December 2009. The relative size of these indicators month by month gives a good indication of the possible trough of the recession. The lowest value of the CLI for a variety of countries and country groups is displayed in Table 7.1 as well as the value for October 2009 and December 2009. Table 7.1 Composite leading indicators — month of lowest and highest value May 2007–December 2009 Country Month when index hit bottom Value of index at the bottom Value of index at peak Value of index December 2009 Value of index Oct 2009 Growth cycle outlook Indonesia* February 2009 93.6 106.5 98.8 99.5 recovery India January 2009 94.0 102.6 99.2 99.3 recovery China January 2009 91.9 102.7 103.1 103.2 expansion Major Asian 5 January 2009 92.6 102.6 102.5 101.0 expansion OECD total February 2009 92.6 103.0 103.1 101.3 expansion OECD Europe* January 2009 94.0 103.4 100.5 103.0 recovery G7 February 2009 92.2 103.0 103.1 101.1 expansion Big 4 Europe* January 2009 94.2 103.2 103.3 104.7 recovery US February 2009 91.0 103.4 101.5 99.6 expansion UK January 2009 95.9 103.2 105.8 103.8 expansion South Korea* October 2008 90.0 102.4 100.3 100.9 possible expansion Japan May 2009 89.2 101.8 102.1 99.6 expansion Germany February 2009 90.5 104.5 104.6 102.1 expansion France December 2008 95.8 102.3 106.7 104.7 expansion Canada February 2009 93.0 101.7 104.3 102.1 expansion Australia* April 2009 96.5 101.3 98.8 99.7 recovery *Value of Index is November not December 2009. Major Asian 5 include China, India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea. Source: OECD, downloaded August 7, 2009, September 11, 2009 and January 3, 2010

Keywords: Unemployment Rate; OECD Country; Euro Area; European Central Bank; Great Depression (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2010
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DOI: 10.1057/9780230307025_7

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