Errors in Prognostication

Dimitris N. Chorafas

Chapter 12 in Modelling the Survival of Financial and Industrial Enterprises, 2002, pp 247-267 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract The general rule discussed throughout this book, and explained through practical examples is that we construct conceptual models in order to simplify, idealise, understand, gain insight, exercise foresight and take action. But as we have also seen, like any other thing in life models are not fool-proof. In fact, the same is true of every theory ever invented.

Keywords: Cash Flow; Model Risk; Gold Price; Volatility Smile; Future Volatility (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2002
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-50173-7_12

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DOI: 10.1057/9780230501737_12

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