The Implications of Complexity for Economic Analysis

Basil John Moore

Chapter 5 in Shaking the Invisible Hand, 2006, pp 104-127 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract Economists are confounded by the turbulence of economic events and are unable to answer most important questions posed to them. They are notoriously unable to forecast turning points in economic time series, to discern when a high priceearnings level of stock prices denotes a bubble; when economies will spin into catastrophic slumps; how to attain a higher rate of output growth; what forces shape changes in the distribution of income, or even if the average rate of increase in money wages next year will be higher or lower than the current rate. Economists are not only unable to predict future events. They have equal difficulty retrodicting past events. The causes of the Great Depression of the 1930s remain highly controversial.

Keywords: General Equilibrium; Rational Expectation; Complex Adaptive System; External Reality; Event Regularity (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2006
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-51213-9_5

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DOI: 10.1057/9780230512139_5

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