Population Forecasts, Fiscal Policy, and Risk

Shripad Tuljapurkar and Clark Burdick

Chapter 10 in Government Spending on the Elderly, 2007, pp 249-271 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract This chapter describes stochastic population forecasts as they relate to the development of policies related to government spending on the elderly, mainly in the context of the industrialized nations. I begin by discussing methods for projecting demographic rates, mortality, fertility, and immigration, using probabilistic forecasts. I show how these are combined to make stochastic forecasts of population number and composition, illustrating with forecasts of the US population. Next I discuss how demographic models and economic models can be combined into an integrated projection model of transfer systems such as Social Security. I show how these integrated models describe various dimensions of policy-relevant risk and discuss the nature and implications of risk in evaluating policy alternatives. Finally, I consider briefly the distinct issues in the projection of health care spending.

Date: 2007
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-230-59144-8_10

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DOI: 10.1057/9780230591448_10

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