 Projecting China’s Grain Demand and SupplyXi-ji An Chapter 12 in China’s Agriculture at the Crossroads, 2000, pp 180-193 from Palgrave Macmillan Abstract: Abstract Since the late l970s when China embarked on economic reform, grain has twice become a subject for heated debate both within the policy circle and amongst economists. The first occurred in the late l980s, and the second has been going on since 1994. The timing of these debates is not accidental. Both happened at times when China suffered painfully from high inflation—grain prices soared at 42.8 per cent per year during 1986–87 and 50.7 per cent per year during 1994–95. Although grain prices have often fluctuated, evidence suggests that grain shortages in China are a chronic trend rather than a cyclical phenomenon. Underlying growth in demand has been outpacing domestic supply. How should China fill the growing gap between domestic demand for and supply of grain, and what are the implications of this growing gap for China’s agricultural policy? This chapter does not intend to address these broad issues. Instead, it provides some projections of China’s grain markets. It is hoped that these projections will put the policy debate on an empirically more sophisticated basis. Keywords: Animal Product; Feed Conversion Ratio; Average Annual Growth Rate; Draught Animal; Urban Population Growth (search for similar items in EconPapers) There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-0-333-97810-8_12 Ordering information: This item can be ordered from Access Statistics for this chapter More chapters in Palgrave Macmillan Books from Palgrave Macmillan |
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