Is There an Electional Cycle? A Comparative Study of National Accounts

Martin Paldam
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Martin Paldam: University of Aarhus

A chapter in Measurement in Public Choice, 1981, pp 182-201 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract This study covers three component series (current growth, real growth and growth in implicit price deflators) for eight main national accounts series for 17 OECD countries. When a government is defined as “stable” if it has a parliamentary majority and if it rules throughout a normal electional period, 49 stable governments are found in the 17 countries between 1948 and 1975. Subsequently, a test is made for all component series in order to see whether each moves in a systematic way during the average stable government period. Data are sufficiently numerous to prove a cycle, even though it turns out to be fairly weak. The cycle does not follow the pattern most often claimed, and to a certain extent it appears to be imported through foreign trade prices. Nevertheless, a policy-generated cycle clearly exists.

Keywords: Government Consumption; National Account; Political Stability; Stable Government; Export Price (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1981
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-05090-1_13

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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-05090-1_13

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