 The Use of Scenarios in Business PlanningBrian J. Loasby Chapter 4 in Unknowledge and Choice in Economics, 1990, pp 46-63 from Palgrave Macmillan Abstract: Abstract In an article under this title, Moyer (1984) reports on the prevalence of substantial errors in American forecasts of economic variables for periods of between five and twenty years ahead, and sees no evidence that the performance of forecasters is improving. Growing awareness of the fragility of our knowledge about the future has helped to provide a climate receptive to ideas about business planning which do not seek to base major decisions on a single best estimate of future events, whatever its sophistication — though there seems little sign that politicians are yet prepared to admit that they may not be able to command the future. This greater consciousness of uncertainty has led to increasing recognition of the value of Professor Shackle’s conception of decision-making, which has indeed been commended both by Drucker (1969), who has always emphasised the need for management to be aware of the possibility of unexpected change, and by Jefferson (1983) in his account of the developing management practice of Shell International. Keywords: Cash Flow; Chief Executive; Business Planning; Nuclear Power Station; Management Style (search for similar items in EconPapers) There are no downloads for this item, see the EconPapers FAQ for hints about obtaining it. Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-08097-7_4 Ordering information: This item can be ordered from DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-08097-7_4 Access Statistics for this chapter More chapters in Palgrave Macmillan Books from Palgrave Macmillan |
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