Scenario-Planning

Leslie E. Grayson
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Leslie E. Grayson: University of Virginia

Chapter 2 in Who and How in Planning for Large Companies, 1987, pp 21-56 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract One of the long-range planning tools that came into its own during the 1970s is scenario-planning. Scenarios present several starkly contrasting futures, none of which is ‘right’, but which force executives to think of economic and business possibilities and break through executives’ traditional attitudes. The theory behind scenario-planning is that, if executives are prepared for several unconventional outcomes, they will be ready to cope with the real world, whatever it might be. In ‘pure’ scenario development, no probabilities are attached to the various outcomes, because to do so would mean attaching probabilities to ‘unknowledge’. Also, it could encourage too much focusing on high-probability scenarios and too little on low-probability ones.

Keywords: Large Company; Scenario Development; Business Issue; Divided World; Rise Energy Demand (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1987
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-08412-8_2

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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-08412-8_2

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