Testing Long Waves in Price and Volume Series from Sixteen Countries

Hans J. Gerster

Chapter 5 in New Findings in Long-Wave Research, 1992, pp 120-147 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract In the wake of the economic problems of Western countries which have persisted since the mid-1970s, the long-wave hypothesis has regained increasing significance as an interpretation of long-run economic development. During the 1950s and 1960s long cyclical movements in capitalist economies played only a minor role in economics. Yet, when the growth trend broke in the 1970s, and phases of negative growth followed, the confidence with which the economists had explained growth cycles as a new form of business fluctuations had gone. The (old) business cycle was back. After more than twenty years of more-or-less sustained growth during the 1950s and 1960s, and a prolonged phase of relative stagnation, it is necessary to extend our research perspective beyond the time frame of the business cycle.

Keywords: Business Cycle; Cycle Length; Polynomial Degree; Frequency Response Function; Trend Component (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1992
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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-22450-0_5

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