German Monetary Union and its Implications for the Rest of Europe

Ray Barrell

Chapter 4 in The German Currency Union of 1990, 1997, pp 63-86 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract This chapter attempts to assess the effects of German monetary union (GEMU) for Britain and the rest of Europe. It is partly a casting over the commentaries the Institute (and the author) published over the years 1988 to 1994, and partly an analysis of the effects using a large, estimated, rational expectations model of the world economy. These two parts are not unrelated, because the quarterly National Institute forecast is produced using this model.2 The author has been actively involved in forecasting the European economy for some time, and hence it is possible to work back and see which events were a surprise, and which anticipated, and when they were first anticipated. This particular task is very important in the analysis of an historical re-evaluation.

Keywords: Exchange Rate; Interest Rate; Monetary Policy; Real Exchange Rate; Real Wage (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-25368-5_4

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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-25368-5_4

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