Foundation for Better Forward Planning Policy in Developing Economies: Improved Forecasts of Macroeconomic Aggregates

Van Tran

Chapter 8 in Economic Development and Prospects in the ASEAN, 1997, pp 198-222 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract This chapter deals with recent advances in information technology (IT) and their applications to modelling and forecasting in the social sciences in both developed and developing economies. First, it briefly describes a new general forecasting approach with superior accuracy — the two-stage hierarchical information (2SHI) average mean squared errors-based estimating and forecasting theories for the linear models (Tran Van Hoa, 1985, 1986a, 1993a, Tran Van Hoa and Chaturvedi, 1988, 1990, 1993) — for use in economics, business, trade, and, finance. Second, it reports an application of this approach to forecasting, by use of a multi-activity macroeconomic model of investment and ouput growth using the World Bank data over two decades 1970 to 1992 in three major developing economies in the ASEAN: Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, and one NIC country in the Asia Pacific: Korea.

Keywords: Mean Square Error; Ordinary Little Square; Linear Regression Model; Output Growth; Macroeconomic Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1997
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:palchp:978-1-349-25921-2_8

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DOI: 10.1007/978-1-349-25921-2_8

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