Projecting International Trade to 2030

Kym Anderson

Chapter Chapter 11 in Agricultural Trade, Policy Reforms, and Global Food Security, 2016, pp 259-306 from Palgrave Macmillan

Abstract: Abstract The world will be able to feed itself adequately in 2030, and at international food prices that in real terms are not greatly different that those just before the global financial crisis and food price spike period of 2008–12. Asia will continue to become more important in the global economy, and especially in markets for primary products. That opens opportunities for natural resource-rich economies to raise their own incomes by expanding their trade with Asia, and more so the faster Asia grows. But agricultural trade would grow less, as would global food security, the more agricultural protection rises in emerging economies in Asia and elsewhere. Unfortunately, regional trade agreements have not been any more able to free up food trade than has the WTO.

Keywords: Computable General Equilibrium; Total Factor Productivity Growth; Computable General Equilibrium Model; Global Food Security; Preferential Trade Agreement (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pal:psachp:978-1-137-46925-0_11

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DOI: 10.1057/978-1-137-46925-0_11

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