Early Warning System (EWS) of Currency Crises: An Empirical Study of Some SEACEN Countries

Yih-Jiuan Wu, Tzung-Ta Yen and Pei-Wen Chen

in Research Studies from South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre

Abstract: This paper investigates the macroeconomic factors in predicting the currency crises in a sample of 7 SEACEN countries using the logit econometric models. The empirical results indicate that the variables that may help predict the timing of the currency crises include real US interest rate, ratio of import to foreign reserves, real effective exchange rate, or money multiplier. In particular, the model that includes real US interest rate and ratio of import to foreign reserves can forecast better than other models for most of the 7 sample countries.

Date: 2000
ISBN: 983-9478-13-3
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.seacen.org/publications/RePEc/702001-100201-PDF.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:sea:rstudy:rp43

Access Statistics for this book

More books in Research Studies from South East Asian Central Banks (SEACEN) Research and Training Centre Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Azharin ().